The Killing Zone for Pilots, with Paul Craig

By John Zimmerman
Feb 10, 2026
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Pilot's Discretion Podcast, episode 123

Pilots with 50-350 hours are involved in more fatal accidents than anyone else, according to research from flight instructor Paul Craig. In this safety-focused episode, he explains the numbers behind this “killing zone,” how to avoid its traps, and whether any accident trends have changed in the 25 years he’s been studying them. Paul also talks about scenario-based training (which he helped write the book on) and new flight instructors (who he teaches every day). In the Ready to Copy segment, Paul talks about VFR-into-IMC accidents, whether pilots are normal, and signing autographs in court.

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Quotes:

The killing zone: “I started to realize by the calculations that there was an area of flight training and in-flight experience that had the higher accident rates… that seemed to center around a zone from about 50 hours up to about 350 hours.”
Long-term safety trends: “overall accidents are down, and that's the best news I can deliver.”
Why the killing zone is not destiny: “Your future is in your own hands. The safety of your flight is going to be based on how you prepare and how you make good decisions.”
Fatal vs. non-fatal accidents: “in the years 2012 through 2023, there were 12,406 accidents. I don't know if this is good news, but in 72% of those accidents the pilot came out of the accident unhurt.”
Staying humble when reading accident reports: “you can never just say, ‘well, yeah, those accident things, those are interesting to read. But those are for the careless pilots, people not like me.’”
What airmanship means in practice: “I think it's mature decision making.”
Trying to teach real-world decision-making: “I was teaching how I was taught. And we did a good job—[the student] passed. But was he really ready for the real world? I was nervous.”
Why scenario-based training matters: “scenario training, I think, boils down to dealing with consequences.”
Giving yourself time to make smart decisions: “The go/no-go decision, when it happens at the airport, it's kind of like you're already in too thick. It's already past the time when you could have driven.”
The right CFI mindset: “Without flight instructors, there'll be no new pilots. So that's a tremendous gift, to be able to pass on this treasure that we have about flying to another person. And so the desire to do that, I think that's the key.”