Pilot's Discretion Podcast, episode 86
Is the post-pandemic boom over for the airlines? Industry analyst and former airline pilot Courtney Miller says the answer is both yes and no. He talks about which airlines are winning and losing in 2024, whether pilot salaries have overshot, and what to make of Boeing’s latest struggles. In the Ready to Copy segment, Courtney explains why oil prices don’t affect airfares, why the 737 MAX was not a mistake, and how to lie with statistics.
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Quotes:
- Forecasting during Covid: “Things were so wild that it was actually quite easy to make a prediction, because all you had to do was point up… We were at zero.”
- Are pilot salaries too high now? “Actually we did overshoot. I don’t think it’s because the pilots screwed anything up; I think it’s because the airlines screwed it up.”
- The counterintuitive pricing strategy for airlines: “Fares are not related to costs.”
- Long term trends: “The cost structures have been reset, and fundamentally so, at a generational level… We’ve restarted the bankruptcy cycle.”
- Boeing vs. Airbus safety records: “You should not be worried about safety with Boeing aircraft… Boeing aircraft are just as safe as Airbus aircraft.”
- Why it’s so hard to take on Boeing and Airbus: “It is purely a challenge of scale… that’s why the duopoly exists.”
- Most controversial aviation opinion: “The aircraft shortage will not be rectified by building more aircraft. We’ll reach a downturn before we reach sufficient airplanes.”
- Why high oil prices don’t drive up air fares: “The impact of oil prices impacts share price more than your fare.”
- The future of turboprop airliners in America? “They will come back.”
- Boeing 737 MAX strategy: “I don’t see any way they could have gone clean sheet. I think it’s very Monday morning quarterback.”
- The new generation of airline pilots: “I think we’ve made some promises to some young pilots coming in that may not happen for them.”
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